Predicting success in the video game industry is challenging, but a number of video game academics are approaching the space by applying an analytical lens over historic data.
Today’s video includes a talk between NYU Professor Joost Rietveld and the ESA, highlighting a number of academic findings.
Rietveld’s thesis looks at how a console’s maturity impacts the success of a publisher’s lineup. His research suggests that publishers see the most success in the early days of a console’s launch.
Towards the end of a console, users tend to be more picky and budget-oriented. “Even though a publisher is facing a larger user-base, on average, their performance goes down,” said Rietveld.
Still, those with the best products can still succeed at the end of a console’s lifecycle. “Towards the tail-end of the console lifecycle, the hits become bigger,” said Rietveld. “This is something we saw with Grand Theft Auto V.”
The full interview on video game academics runs for eight minutes and can be viewed below.
Rietveld actively blogs at Strategy Guide .
Disclosure: I’ve guest-lectured at his classes. He is a smart guy.